2026
VIBES: A Multi-Scale Modeling
Approach Integrating Within-Host and Between-Hosts Dynamics in Epidemics
Paulo Cesar Ventura, Yong Dam Jeong, Maria Litvinova, Allisandra G Kummer, Shingo Iwami,
Hongjie Yu, Stefano Merler, Alessandro Vespignani, Keisuke Ejima, Marco Ajelli
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of
America, In press (2026)
Understanding
human mobility patterns under a public health emergency
Cheng Peng, Nana Chen, Bo-Wen Ming, Anqi Zhang, Yao Zuo, Paulo C Ventura,
Hongjie Yu, Marco Ajelli, Juanjuan Zhang
Infectious Disease Modelling 11 (1), 241-255 (2026)
2025
China's
post-zero-COVID Omicron wave: A Bayesian analysis
Jun Cai, Yanpeng Wu, Hengcong Liu, Zhu Deng, Lan Yi, Liuhe Lai, Anna Funk,
Marco Ajelli, Hongjie Yu
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of
America 122 (48), e2514157122 (2025)
Epistorm-Mix: Mapping
Social Contact Patterns for Respiratory Pathogen Spread in the Post-Pandemic United States
Maria Litvinova, Shelly Sinclair, Allisandra G Kummer, Paulo C Ventura, Trevor Foster,
Kayoko Shioda, M Elizabeth Halloran, Alessandro Vespignani, Marco Ajelli
Preprint available at medRxiv (2025)
Epydemix: An open-source
Python package for epidemic modeling with integrated approximate Bayesian calibration
Nicoló Gozzi, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T Davis, Corrado Gioannini, Luca Rossi, Marco Ajelli,
Nicola Perra, Alessandro Vespignani
PLOS Computational Biology 21 (11), e1013735 (2025)
Mapping the Landscape of
Individual-Based Models for Respiratory Pathogen Transmission in the Pandemic and Post-Pandemic Era
(2020-2024): A Systematic Review
Shreeya Mhade, Utkarsh Bhosekar, Megan D Hill, Shelly Sinclair, Snigdha Agrawal,
Jessica Guerrini, Luling Zou, Anna Koebcke, Allisandra G Kummer, Paulo C Ventura, Sara Y Del Valle,
Matteo Chinazzi, Maria Litvinova, Alessandro Vespignani, Marco Ajelli
Preprint available at SSRN (2025)
Evaluating Field Trial
Designs for Genetically Modified Mosquito Interventions: An In-Silico Simulation Approach
Jagadeesh Chitturi, Paulo C Ventura, Allisandra G Kummer, Chalmers Vasquez, Ethan SeRine,
Megan D Hill, Mattia Manica, Piero Poletti, John C Beier, Keisuke Ejima, Michael Johansson, Stefano Merler,
Hongjie Yu, John-Paul Mutebi, Maria Litvinova, André BB Wilke, Marco Ajelli
Preprint available at bioRxiv (2025)
Spatiotemporal Dynamics
of Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus populations in Miami-Dade County, Florida
Chalmers Vasquez, Laura C Multini, John-Paul Mutebi, Ethan SeRine, Megan D Hill,
Maria Litvinova, Marco Ajelli, André BB Wilke
Preprint available at bioRxiv (2025)
Assessing the effectiveness
of test-trace-isolate interventions using a multi-layered temporal network
Yunyi Cai, Weiyi Wang, Lanlan Yu, Ruixiao Wang, Gui-Quan Sun, Allisandra G Kummer,
Paulo C Ventura, Jiancheng Lv, Marco Ajelli, Quan-Hui Liu
Infectious Disease Modelling 10 (3), 775-786 (2025)
Evaluating the effectiveness
of international travel controls to identify MPXV-infected travelers: a simulation study
Keisuke Ejima, Yuqian Wang, Akira Endo, Hiroaki Murayama, Yun Shan Goh, Alex R Cook,
Yong Dam Jeong, Shingo Iwami, Hyeongki Park, Borame Sue Lee Dickens, Shihui Jin, Jue Tao Lim, Conrad En Zuo Chan,
Po Ying Chia, Barnaby E Young, Yang Yang, Martin Chio, David Chien Lye, Marco Ajelli
BMC Medicine 23 (1), 473 (2025)
Leveraging mosquito
surveillance data to assess ecosystem health
Nicole A Scavo, Chalmers Vasquez, John-Paul Mutebi, Marco Ajelli, André BB Wilke
Trends in Parasitology 41 (6), 424-427 (2025)
Social contact patterns
and their impact on the transmission of respiratory pathogens in rural China
Yuxia Liang, Qian You, Qianli Wang, Xiaohong Yang, Guangjie Zhong, Kaige Dong, Zeyao Zhao,
Nuolan Liu, Xuemei Yan, Wanying Lu, Cheng Peng, Jiaxin Zhou, Jiqun Lin, Maria Litvinova, Mark Jit,
Marco Ajelli, Hongjie Yu, Juanjuan Zhang
Infectious Disease Modelling 10 (2), 439-452 (2025)
Measles Population Immunity
in Hunan, China: A Serological Assessment
Yanpeng Wu, Qianli Wang, Wei Wang, Xiaoyu Zhou, Juanjuan Zhang, Sihong Zhao, Yuxia Liang,
Pengfei Wang, Filippo Trentini, Marco Ajelli, Hongjie Yu
Open Forum Infectious Diseases 12 (5), ofaf216 (2025)
Evaluation of the
2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA
Ryan D Harp, Karen M Holcomb, Renata Retkute, Alisa Prusokiene, Augustinas Prusokas,
Zeynep Ertem, Marco Ajelli, Allisandra G Kummer, Maria Litvinova, Stefano Merler, Ana Pastore y Piontti,
Piero Poletti, Alessandro Vespignani, Andre BB Wilke, Agnese Zardini, Kelly Helm Smith, Philip Armstrong,
Nicholas DeFelice, Alexander Keyel, John Shepard, Rebecca Smith, Andrew Tyre, John Humphreys, Lee W Cohnstaedt,
Saman Hosseini, Caterina Scoglio, Morgan E Gorris, Martha Barnard, S Kane Moser, Julie A Spencer,
Maggie SJ McCarter, Christopher Lee, Melissa S Nolan, Christopher M Barker, J Erin Staples, Randall J Nett,
Michael A Johansson
Parasites & Vectors 18 (1), 152 (2025)
Vaccination strategies
for Ebola in the democratic republic of Congo: the WHO-Ebola modeling collaboration
Marco Ajelli, Jean-Jacques Muyembe, Alhassane Touré, Abdourahamane Diallo, Maria Litvinova,
Stefano Merler, Sabué Mulangu, Aminata Bagayoko, Aissatou Bah, Ibrahima Bah, Aissatou Barry, Fatoumata Barry,
Mohamed Chérif, Doussou Condé, Alpha A Diallo, Fatoumata Diallo, Mory Diakité, Kassié Doré, Koundouno A Mapan,
Thérèse Koundouno, Patrice K Onivogui, Fassou Lamah, Henry Maneno, Alphonse Nomou, Kourouma Sekouba, Ismaila Sani,
Abdoulaye Soumah, Mamadou M Sy, Pierre-Stéphane Gsell, M Elizabeth Halloran, Ana Maria Henao-Restrepo,
Ibrahima Socé Fall, Mike J Ryan, Peter Salama, Alessandro Vespignani, Ira M Longini Jr
International Journal of Infectious Diseases 153, 107779 (2025)
Age-and vaccination
status-dependent isolation guidelines based on simulation of SARS-CoV-2 Delta cases in Singapore
Keisuke Ejima, Marco Ajelli, Ananya Singh, Hoong Kai Chua, Luis Ponce, Yuqian Wang,
Yong Dam Jeong, Shingo Iwami, Kenji Shibuya, Kiyosu Taniguchi, Norio Ohmagari, Po Ying Chia, Sean WX Ong,
Kelvin Bryan Tan, David Chien Lye, Barnaby E Young
Communications Medicine 5 (1), 76 (2025)
Human migrations,
anthropogenic changes, and insect-borne diseases in Latin America
André BB Wilke, Priscilla Farina, Marco Ajelli, Angelo Canale, Filipe Dantas-Torres,
Domenico Otranto, Giovanni Benelli
Parasites & Vectors 18 (1), 4 (2025)
A modeling study to
define guidelines for antigen screening in schools and workplaces to mitigate COVID-19 outbreaks
Yong Dam Jeong, Keisuke Ejima, Kwang Su Kim, Shoya Iwanami, William S Hart,
Robin N Thompson, Il Hyo Jung, Shingo Iwami, Marco Ajelli, Kazuyuki Aihara
Communications Medicine 5 (1), 2 (2025)
Defining the Critical Requisites
for Accurate Simulation of SARS-CoV-2 Viral Dynamics: Patient Characteristics and Data Collection Protocol
Hoong Kai Chua, Ananya Singh, Yuqian Wang, Yun Shan Goh, Conrad En Zuo Chan,
Jean-Marc Chavatte, Raymond Valentine Tzer Pin Lin, Yvonne CF Su, Marco Ajelli, Po Ying Chia, Sean WX Ong,
David Chien Lye, Barnaby E Young, Keisuke Ejima
Journal of Medical Virology 97 (1), e70174 (2025)
2024
Post-pandemic social contacts
in Italy: implications for social distancing measures on in-person school and work attendance
Lorenzo Lucchini, Valentina Marziano, Filippo Trentini, Chiara Chiavenna, Elena D'Agnese,
Vittoria Offeddu, Mattia Manica, Piero Poletti, Duilio Balsamo, Giorgio Guzzetta, Marco Ajelli, Alessia Melegaro,
Stefano Merler
Preprint available at arXiv (2024)
Real-time estimates of
the emergence and dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: A modeling approach
Nicolò Gozzi, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Ana Pastore y Piontti,
Marco Ajelli, Alessandro Vespignani, Nicola Perra
Epidemics 49, 100805 (2024)
Presence and abundance of
malaria vector species in Miami-Dade County, Florida
André BB Wilke, Chalmers Vasquez, Johana Medina, Isik Unlu, John C Beier, Marco Ajelli
Malaria Journal 23, 24 (2024)
Forecasting the relative
abundance of Aedes vector populations to enhance situational awareness for mosquito control operations
Paulo C Ventura, Allisandra G Kummer, André BB Wilke, Jagadeesh Chitturi, Megan D Hill,
Chalmers Vasquez, Isik Unlu, John-Paul Mutebi, Susanne Kluh, Steve Vetrone, Dan Damian, John Townsend,
Maria Litvinova, Marco Ajelli
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 18(11), e0012671 (2024)
Mosquito‐Borne
Disease among Individuals Experiencing Homelessness in the United States: A Literature Review
Andre Wilke, Megan Hill, Allisandra Kummer, Chalmers Vasquez, John-Paul Mutebi, Xi Huo,
Han Li, Jing Chen, Shigui Ruan, John Beier, Maria Litvinova, Thomas Byrne, Marco Ajelli
Preprint available at Preprints (2024)
Increasing situational
awareness through nowcasting of the reproduction number
Andrea Bizzotto, Giorgio Guzzetta, Valentina Marziano, Martina Del Manso,
Alberto Mateo Urdiales, Daniele Petrone, Andrea Cannone, Chiara Sacco, Piero Poletti, Mattia Manica,
Agnese Zardini, Filippo Trentini, Massimo Fabiani, Antonino Bella, Flavia Riccardo, Patrizio Pezzotti,
Marco Ajelli, Stefano Merler
Frontiers in Public Health 12, 1430920 (2024)
A multiscale modeling
framework for Scenario Modeling: Characterizing the heterogeneity of the COVID-19 epidemic in the US
Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T Davis, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Kunpeng Mu, Nicolò Gozzi,
Marco Ajelli, Nicola Perra, Alessandro Vespignani
Epidemics 47, 100757 (2024)
Assessing the impact of
interventions on the major Omicron BA.2 outbreak in spring 2022 in Shanghai
Hengcong Liu, Jun Cai, Jiaxin Zhou, Xiangyanyu Xu, Marco Ajelli, Hongjie Yu
Infectious Disease Modelling 9(2), 519-526 (2024)
Comparing the effectiveness
of adulticide application interventions on mitigating local transmission of dengue virus
Allisandra G Kummer, André BB Wilke, Paulo C Ventura, Chalmers Vasquez, Johana Medina,
Isik Unlu, Yaziri Gonzalez, Adquate Mhlanga, Giovanni Benelli, Keisuke Ejima, John-Paul Mutebi, Marco Ajelli
Journal of Pest Science 98, 463-475 (2024)
Evaluating Seasonal Variations
in Human Contact Patterns and Their Impact on the Transmission of Respiratory Infectious Diseases
Allisandra G Kummer, Juanjuan Zhang, Chenyan Jiang, Maria Litvinova, Paulo C Ventura, Marc A Garcia, Alessandro Vespignani, Huanyu Wu, Hongjie Yu, Marco Ajelli
Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 18(5), e13301 (2024)
Spatial spread of COVID-19
during the early pandemic phase in Italy
Valeria d’Andrea, Filippo Trentini, Valentina Marziano, Agnese Zardini, Mattia Manica,
Giorgio Guzzetta, Marco Ajelli, Daniele Petrone, Martina Del Manso, Chiara Sacco, Xanthi Andrianou,
Antonino Bella, Flavia Riccardo, Patrizio Pezzotti, Piero Poletti, Stefano Merler
BMC Infectious Diseases 24, 450 (2024)
The decline of the 2022
Italian mpox epidemic: Role of behavior changes and control strategies
Giorgio Guzzetta, Valentina Marziano, Alessia Mammone, Andrea Siddu, Federica Ferraro,
Anna Caraglia, Francesco Maraglino, Giovanni Rezza, Alessandro Vespignani, Ira Longini, Marco Ajelli,
Stefano Merler
Nature Communications 15, 2283 (2024)
Counterfactual analysis of
the 2023 Omicron XBB wave in China
Hengcong Liu, Xiangyanyu Xu, Xiaowei Deng, Zexin Hu, Ruijia Sun, Junyi Zou, Jiayi Dong,
Qianhui Wu, Xinhua Chen, Lan Yi, Jun Cai, Juanjuan Zhang, Marco Ajelli, Hongjie Yu
Infectious Disease Modelling 9(1), 195-203 (2024)
The unequal effects of the
health-economy trade-off during the COVID-19 pandemic
Marco Pangallo, Alberto Aleta, R Maria del Rio-Chanona, Anton Pichler, David Martín-Corral,
Matteo Chinazzi, François Lafond, Marco Ajelli, Esteban Moro, Yamir Moreno, Alessandro Vespignani,
J Doyne Farmer
Nature Human Behaviour 8, 264-275 (2024)
Evaluation of FluSight
influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza
hospitalizations
Sarabeth M Mathis, Alexander E Webber, Tomás M León, Erin L Murray, Monica Sun,
Lauren A White, Logan C Brooks, Alden Green, Addison J Hu, Roni Rosenfeld, Dmitry Shemetov,
Ryan J Tibshirani, Daniel J McDonald, Sasikiran Kandula, Sen Pei, Rami Yaari, Teresa K Yamana,
Jeffrey Shaman, Pulak Agarwal, Srikar Balusu, Gautham Gururajan, Harshavardhan Kamarthi,
B Aditya Prakash, Rishi Raman, Zhiyuan Zhao, Alexander Rodríguez, Akilan Meiyappan, Shalina Omar,
Prasith Baccam, Heidi L Gurung, Brad T Suchoski, Steve A Stage, Marco Ajelli, Allisandra G Kummer,
Maria Litvinova, Paulo C Ventura, Spencer Wadsworth, Jarad Niemi, Erica Carcelen, Alison L Hill,
Sara L Loo, Clifton D McKee, Koji Sato, Claire Smith, Shaun Truelove, Sung-mok Jung, Joseph C Lemaitre,
Justin Lessler, Thomas McAndrew, Wenxuan Ye, Nikos Bosse, William S Hlavacek, Yen Ting Lin, Abhishek Mallela,
Graham C Gibson, Ye Chen, Shelby M Lamm, Jaechoul Lee, Richard G Posner
Nature Communications 15, 6289 (2024)
Unveiling the role of
mosquito and human diel activity patterns in the risk of mosquito-borne disease infection
Paulo C. Ventura, Andre B.B. Wilke, Jagadeesh Chitturi, Allisandra G. Kummer,
Snigdha Agrawal, Chalmers Vasquez, Yaziri Gonzalez, Maria Litvinova, John-Paul Mutebi, Marco Ajelli
Preprint available at medRxiv (2024)
Estimating the potential risk
of transmission of arboviruses in the Americas and Europe: a modelling study
Agnese Zardini, Francesco Menegale, Andrea Gobbi, Mattia Manica, Giorgio Guzzetta,
Valeria d'Andrea, Valentina Marziano, Filippo Trentini, Fabrizio Montarsi, Beniamino Caputo, Angelo Solimini,
Cecilia Marques-Toledo, André B B Wilke, Roberto Rosà, Giovanni Marini, Daniele Arnoldi, Ana Pastore y Piontti,
Andrea Pugliese, Gioia Capelli, Alessandra della Torre, Mauro M Teixeira, John C Beier, Annapaola Rizzoli,
Alessandro Vespignani, Marco Ajelli, Stefano Merler, Piero Poletti
The Lancet Planetary Health 8(1), E30-E40 (2024)
2023
Heterogeneous changes in
mobility in response to the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 outbreak in Shanghai
Juanjuan Zhang, Suoyi Tan, Cheng Peng, Xiangyanyu Xu, Mengning Wang, Wanying Lu,
Yanpeng Wu, Bin Sai, Mengsi Cai, Allisandra G Kummer, Zhiyuan Chen, Junyi Zou, Wenxin Li, Wen Zheng,
Yuxia Liang, Yuchen Zhao, Alessandro Vespignani, Marco Ajelli, Xin Lu, Hongjie Yu
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 120(42), e2306710120 (2023)
Assessing changes in
incubation period, serial interval, and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: a systematic review
and meta-analysis
Xiangyanyu Xu, Yanpeng Wu, Allisandra G Kummer, Yuchen Zhao, Zexin Hu, Yan Wang,
Hengcong Liu, Marco Ajelli, Hongjie Yu
BMC Medicine 21, 374 (2023)
Unintended effects of
urban policies on the risk of arbovirus transmission
André BB Wilke, Ni-Bin Chang, John Townsend, Giovanni Benelli, Marco Ajelli
Trends in Parasitology 39(12), 1001-1003 (2023)
Evaluating the impact
of test-trace-isolate for COVID-19 management and alternative strategies
Kun Zhang, Zhichu Xia, Shudong Huang, Gui-Quan Sun, Jiancheng Lv, Marco Ajelli,
Keisuke Ejima, Quan-Hui Liu
PLoS Computational Biology 19(9), e1011423 (2023)
Estimating SARS-CoV-2 infections
and associated changes in COVID-19 severity and fatality
Valentina Marziano, Giorgio Guzzetta, Francesco Menegale, Chiara Sacco, Daniele Petrone,
Alberto Mateo Urdiales, Martina Del Manso, Antonino Bella, Massimo Fabiani, Maria Fenicia Vescio, Flavia Riccardo,
Piero Poletti, Mattia Manica, Agnese Zardini, Valeria d'Andrea, Filippo Trentini, Paola Stefanelli,
Giovanni Rezza, Anna Teresa Palamara, Silvio Brusaferro, Marco Ajelli, Patrizio Pezzotti, Stefano Merler
Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 17(8), e13181 (2023)
Evaluating
the effect of targeted strategies as control tools for hypervirulent meningococcal C outbreaks: a case study
from Tuscany, Italy, 2015 to 2016
Giorgio Guzzetta, Marco Ajelli, Alessandro Miglietta, Cecilia Fazio, Arianna Neri,
Stefano Merler, Giovanni Rezza, Paola Stefanelli
Eurosurveillance 28(19), 2200650 (2023)
Evaluation of
Waning of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine–Induced Immunity: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
Francesco Menegale, Mattia Manica, Agnese Zardini, Giorgio Guzzetta, Valentina Marziano,
Valeria d'Andrea, Filippo Trentini, Marco Ajelli, Piero Poletti, Stefano Merler
JAMA Network Open 6(5), e2310650 (2023)
Priority age targets for
COVID-19 vaccination in Ethiopia under limited vaccine supply
Margherita Galli, Agnese Zardini, Worku Nigussa Gamshie, Stefano Santini, Ademe Tsegaye,
Filippo Trentini, Valentina Marziano, Giorgio Guzzetta, Mattia Manica, Valeria d’Andrea, Giovanni Putoto,
Fabio Manenti, Marco Ajelli, Piero Poletti, Stefano Merler
Scientific Reports 13, 5586 (2023)
Long-term measles antibody
profiles following different vaccine schedules in China, a longitudinal study
Qianli Wang, Wei Wang, Amy K Winter, Zhifei Zhan, Marco Ajelli, Filippo Trentini,
Lili Wang, Fangcai Li, Juan Yang, Xingyu Xiang, Qiaohong Liao, Jiaxin Zhou, Jinxin Guo, Xuemei Yan,
Nuolan Liu, C Jessica E Metcalf, Bryan T Grenfell, Hongjie Yu
Nature Communications 14, 1746 (2023)
Risk Factors Associated with
the Spatiotemporal Spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 Variant — Shanghai Municipality, China, 2022
Wen Zheng, Xiaowei Deng, Cheng Peng, Xuemei Yan, Nan Zheng, Zhiyuan Chen, Juan Yang,
Marco Ajelli, Juanjuan Zhang, Hongjie Yu
China CDC Weekly 5(5), 97-102 (2023)
Spatiotemporal
distribution of vector mosquito species and areas at risk for arbovirus transmission in Maricopa County,
Arizona
André BB Wilke, Dan Damian, Maria Litvinova, Thomas Byrne, Agnese Zardini, Piero Poletti,
Stefano Merler, John-Paul Mutebi, John Townsend, Marco Ajelli
Acta Tropica 240, 106833 (2023)
Diel activity patterns of
vector mosquito species in the urban environment: Implications for vector control strategies
André BB Wilke, Adequate Mhlanga, Allisandra G Kummer, Chalmers Vasquez, Maday Moreno,
William D Petrie, Art Rodriguez, Christopher Vitek, Gabriel L Hamer, John-Paul Mutebi, Marco Ajelli
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 17(1), e0011074 (2023)
SARS-CoV-2 transmission
patterns in educational settings during the Alpha wave in Reggio-Emilia, Italy
Carla Molina Grané, Pamela Mancuso, Massimo Vicentini, Francesco Venturelli, Olivera Djuric,
Mattia Manica, Giorgio Guzzetta, Valentina Marziano, Agnese Zardini, Valeria d’Andrea, Filippo Trentini,
Eufemia Bisaccia, Elisabetta Larosa, Silvia Cilloni, Maria Teresa Cassinadri, Patrizio Pezzotti, Marco Ajelli,
Paolo Giorgi Rossi, Stefano Merler, Piero Poletti
Epidemics 44, 100712 (2023)
Environmental and
socio-economic determinants of mosquito vector species presence and abundance in Los Angeles County, California
Megan Hill, Andre BB Wilke, Douglas O Fuller, Allisandra G Kummer, Paulo C Ventura,
John C Beier, Susanne Kluh, Steven Vetrone, Maria Litvinova, Marco Ajelli
Preprint available at Research Square (2023)
Transmission Dynamics and
Epidemiological Characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant ― Hunan Province, China, 2021
Kaiwei Luo, Yanpeng Wu, Yan Wang, Ziyan Liu, Lan Yi, Shanlu Zhao, Xuemei Yan, Hao Yang,
Kaiyuan Sun, Marco Ajelli, Shixiong Hu, Hongjie Yu
China CDC Weekly 5(3), 56-62 (2023)
Estimating SARS-CoV-2 transmission
in educational settings: A retrospective cohort study
Mattia Manica, Piero Poletti, Silvia Deandrea, Giansanto Mosconi, Cinzia Ancarani,
Silvia Lodola, Giorgio Guzzetta, Valeria d'Andrea, Valentina Marziano, Agnese Zardini, Filippo Trentini,
Anna Odone, Marcello Tirani, Marco Ajelli, Stefano Merler
Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 17(1), e13049 (2023)
Estimation of the incubation
period and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Delta variants from contact tracing data
Mattia Manica, Maria Litvinova, Alfredo De Bellis, Giorgio Guzzetta, Pamela Mancuso,
Massimo Vicentini, Francesco Venturelli, Eufemia Bisaccia, Ana I Bento, Piero Poletti, Valentina Marziano,
Agnese Zardini, Valeria d'Andrea, Filippo Trentini, Antonino Bella, Flavia Riccardo, Patrizio Pezzotti,
Marco Ajelli, Paolo Giorgi Rossi, Stefano Merler, Reggio Emilia COVID-19 Working Group
Epidemiology & Infection 151, e5 (2023)
2022
Assessing the
transition of COVID-19 burden towards the young population while vaccines are rolled out in China
Jun Cai, Juan Yang, Xiaowei Deng, Cheng Peng, Xinhua Chen, Qianhui Wu, Hengcong Liu,
Juanjuan Zhang, Wen Zheng, Junyi Zou, Zeyao Zhao, Marco Ajelli, Hongjie Yu
Emerging Microbes & Infections 11 (1), 1205-1214 (2022)
Epidemiological characteristics
and transmission dynamics of the outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Shanghai,
China: a descriptive study
Zhiyuan Chen, Xiaowei Deng, Liqun Fang, Kaiyuan Sun, Yanpeng Wu, Tianle Che, Junyi Zou,
Jun Cai, Hengcong Liu, Yan Wang, Tao Wang, Yuyang Tian, Nan Zheng, Xuemei Yan, Ruijia Sun, Xiangyanyu Xu,
Xiaoyu Zhou, Shijia Ge, Yuxia Liang, Lan Yi, Juan Yang, Juanjuan Zhang, Marco Ajelli, Hongjie Yu
The Lancet Regional Health-Western Pacific 29, (2022)
Characterizing the
transmission patterns of seasonal influenza in Italy: lessons from the last decade
Filippo Trentini, Elena Pariani, Antonino Bella, Giulio Diurno, Lucia Crottogini,
Caterina Rizzo, Stefano Merler, Marco Ajelli
BMC Public Health 22 (1), 1-9 (2022)
Assessing the feasibility
of sustaining SARS-CoV-2 local containment in China in the era of highly transmissible variants
Yan Wang, Kaiyuan Sun, Zhaomin Feng, Lan Yi, Yanpeng Wu, Hengcong Liu, Quanyi Wang,
Marco Ajelli, Cécile Viboud, Hongjie Yu
BMC Medicine 20 (1), 442 (2022)
Tracking the progressive
spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Italy, December 2021 to January 2022
Paola Stefanelli, Filippo Trentini, Daniele Petrone, Alessia Mammone, Luigina Ambrosio,
Mattia Manica, Giorgio Guzzetta, Valeria d'Andrea, Valentina Marziano, Agnese Zardini, Carla Molina Grane,
Marco Ajelli, Angela Di Martino, Flavia Riccardo, Antonino Bella, Monica Sane Schepisi, Francesco Maraglino,
Piero Poletti, Anna Teresa Palamara, Silvio Brusaferro, Giovanni Rezza, Patrizio Pezzotti, Stefano Merler
Eurosurveillance 27 (45), 2200125 (2022)
Investigating the
relationship between interventions, contact patterns, and SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility
Filippo Trentini, Adriana Manna, Nicoletta Balbo, Valentina Marziano, Giorgio Guzzetta,
Samantha O’Dell, Allisandra G Kummer, Maria Litvinova, Stefano Merler, Marco Ajelli, Piero Poletti,
Alessia Melegaro
Epidemics 40, 100601 (2022)
Designing isolation
guidelines for COVID-19 patients with rapid antigen tests
Yong Dam Jeong, Keisuke Ejima, Kwang Su Kim, Woo Joohyeon, Shoya Iwanami, Yasuhisa Fujita,
Il Hyo Jung, Kazuyuki Aihara, Kenji Shibuya, Shingo Iwami, Ana I Bento, Marco Ajelli
Nature Communications 13 (1), 4910 (2022)
Intrinsic generation time of the
SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant: an observational study of household transmission
Mattia Manica, Alfredo De Bellis, Giorgio Guzzetta, Pamela Mancuso, Massimo Vicentini,
Francesco Venturelli, Alessandro Zerbini, Eufemia Bisaccia, Maria Litvinova, Francesco Menegale, Carla Molina Grané,
Piero Poletti, Valentina Marziano, Agnese Zardini, Valeria d'Andrea, Filippo Trentini, Antonino Bella,
Flavia Riccardo, Patrizio Pezzotti, Marco Ajelli, Paolo Giorgi Rossi, Stefano Merler, Reggio Emilia
COVID-19 Working Group
The Lancet Regional Health-Europe 19, 100446 (2022)
Modeling transmission
of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron in China
Jun Cai, Xiaowei Deng, Juan Yang, Kaiyuan Sun, Hengcong Liu, Zhiyuan Chen, Cheng Peng,
Xinhua Chen, Qianhui Wu, Junyi Zou, Ruijia Sun, Wen Zheng, Zeyao Zhao, Wanying Lu, Yuxia Liang,Xiaoyu Zhou,
Marco Ajelli, Hongjie Yu
Nature Medicine 28 (7), 1468-1475 (2022)
Quantifying the importance
and location of SARS-CoV-2 transmission events in large metropolitan areas
Alberto Aleta, David Martín-Corral, Michiel A Bakker, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Marco Ajelli,
Maria Litvinova, Matteo Chinazzi, Natalie E Dean, M Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M Longini Jr, Alex Pentland,
Alessandro Vespignani, Yamir Moreno, Esteban Moro
Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 119 (26), e2112182119 (2022)
Anatomy of the first
six months of COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Italy
Nicolò Gozzi, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Ana Pastore y Piontti,
Marco Ajelli, Nicola Perra, Alessandro Vespignani
PLOS Computational Biology 18 (5), e1010146 (2022)
Quantifying human mixing
patterns in Chinese provinces outside Hubei after the 2020 lockdown was lifted
Yining Zhao, Samantha O’Dell, Xiaohan Yang, Jingyi Liao, Kexin Yang, Laura Fumanelli,
Tao Zhou, Jiancheng Lv, Marco Ajelli, Quan-Hui Liu
BMC Infectious Diseases 22 (1), 483 (2022)
The New Quadrivalent Adjuvanted
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Giovanna Elisa Calabrò, Sara Boccalini, Donatella Panatto, Caterina Rizzo,
Maria Luisa Di Pietro, Fasika Molla Abreha, Marco Ajelli, Daniela Amicizia, Angela Bechini, Irene Giacchetta,
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International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19 (7), 4166 (2022)
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Eurosurveillance 27 (5), 2100429 (2022)
Investigating vaccine-induced
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BMC Medicine 20 (1), 37 (2022)
Model-based evaluation of
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Nature Communications 13 (1), 322 (2022)
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American journal of epidemiology 191 (1), 137-146 (2022)
2021
The effect of COVID-19
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Valentina Marziano, Giorgio Guzzetta, Alessia Mammone, Flavia Riccardo, Piero Poletti,
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Nature Communications 12 (1), 1-8 (2021)
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The early phase of the
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Danilo Cereda, Mattia Manica, Marcello Tirani, Francesca Rovida, Vittorio Demicheli,
Marco Ajelli, Piero Poletti, Filippo Trentini, Giorgio Guzzetta, Valentina Marziano, Raffaella Piccarreta,
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Who should be prioritized
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Juan Yang, Wen Zheng, Huilin Shi, Xuemei Yan, Kaige Dong, Qian You, Guangjie Zhong,
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BMC Medicine 19 (1), 1-13 (2021)
Social contact patterns and
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Andria Mousa, Peter Winskill, Oliver John Watson, Oliver Ratmann, Mélodie Monod,
Marco Ajelli, Aldiouma Diallo, Peter J Dodd, Carlos G Grijalva, Moses Chapa Kiti, Anand Krishnan, Rakesh Kumar,
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Shasha Han, Jun Cai, Juan Yang, Juanjuan Zhang, Qianhui Wu, Wen Zheng, Huilin Shi,
Marco Ajelli, Xiao-Hua Zhou, Hongjie Yu
Nature Communications 12 (1), 1-10 (2021)
Despite vaccination, China
needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021
Juan Yang, Valentina Marziano, Xiaowei Deng, Giorgio Guzzetta, Juanjuan Zhang,
Filippo Trentini, Jun Cai, Piero Poletti, Wen Zheng, Wei Wang, Qianhui Wu, Zeyao Zhao, Kaige Dong,
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Nature Human Behaviour 5 (8), 1009-1020 (2021)
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Valentina Marziano, Filippo Trentini, Xanthi Andrianou, Alberto Mateo Urdiales, Martina Del Manso,
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Marco Ajelli, Silvio Brusaferro, Patrizio Pezzotti, Stefano Merler
Nature Communications 12, 4570 (2021)
Revisiting the guidelines for
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Yong Dam Jeong, Keisuke Ejima, Kwang Su Kim, Shoya Iwanami, Ana I Bento,
Yasuhisa Fujita, Il Hyo Jung, Kazuyuki Aihara, Koichi Watashi, Taiga Miyazaki, Takaji Wakita, Shingo Iwami,
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eLife 10, e69340 (2021)
Seroprevalence of
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Piero Poletti, Marcello Tirani, Danilo Cereda, Giorgio Guzzetta, Filippo Trentini,
Valentina Marziano, Claudia Toso, Alessandra Piatti, Raffaella Piccarreta, Alessia Melegaro, Aida Andreassi,
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JAMA Network Open 4 (7), e2115699-e2115699 (2021)
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Pandemic Wave of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Xiaowei Deng, Juan Yang, Wei Wang, Xiling Wang, Jiaxin Zhou, Zhiyuan Chen, Jing Li,
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Clinical Infectious Diseases 73 (1), e79-e85 (2021)
The impact of relaxing
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Juanjuan Zhang, Maria Litvinova, Yuxia Liang, Wen Zheng, Huilin Shi,
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Science Advances 7 (19), eabe2584 (2021)
Modeling the interplay
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Filippo Trentini, Giorgio Guzzetta, Margherita Galli, Agnese Zardini, Fabio Manenti,
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BMC medicine 19 (1), 89 (2021)
Data-driven estimate of
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Infectivity, susceptibility,
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Nature Communications 12 (1), 1-11 (2021)
Serological evidence
of human infection with SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review and meta-analysis
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The Lancet Global Health 9 (5), E598-E609 (2021)
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Piero Poletti, Marcello Tirani, Danilo Cereda, Filippo Trentini, Giorgio Guzzetta,
Giuliana Sabatino, Valentina Marziano, Ambra Castrofino, Francesca Grosso, Gabriele Del Castillo,
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ATS Lombardy COVID, Task Force
JAMA Network Open 4 (3), e211085-e211085 (2021)
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Juan Yang, Hui Gong, Xinhua Chen, Zhiyuan Chen, Xiaowei Deng, Mengcen Qian,
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Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 15 (2), 188-194 (2021)
Retrospective analysis of the
Italian exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown
Valentina Marziano, Giorgio Guzzetta, Bruna Maria Rondinone, Fabio Boccuni,
Flavia Riccardo, Antonino Bella, Piero Poletti, Filippo Trentini, Patrizio Pezzotti, Silvio Brusaferro,
Giovanni Rezza, Sergio Iavicoli, Marco Ajelli, Stefano Merler
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118 (4), e2019617118 (2021)
Transmission heterogeneities,
kinetics, and controllability of SARS-CoV-2
Kaiyuan Sun, Wei Wang, Lidong Gao, Yan Wang, Kaiwei Luo, Lingshuang Ren, Zhifei Zhan,
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Marco Ajelli, Cécile Viboud, Hongjie Yu
Science 371 (6526), eabe2424 (2021)
Inferring high-resolution
human mixing patterns for disease modeling
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Nature Communications 12, 323 (2021)
Risk of Symptomatic Infection
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Clinical Infectious Diseases 74 (5), 893–896 (2021)
Impact of a Nationwide Lockdown
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Antonietta Filia, Fortunato D'Ancona, Andrea Siddu, Ornella Punzo, Filippo Trentini, Giorgio Guzzetta, Piero Poletti,
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Silvio Brusaferro, Giovanni Rezza, Stefano Merler, Patrizio Pezzotti, Angela di Martino, Marzia Facchini,
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Nature Communications 11 (1), 1-10 (2020)
Modelling the impact
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Age-specific SARS-CoV-2
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Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics
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