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Situational Awareness

The "Now and Next"
Mosquito Forecast

Why Situational Awareness?

In the early stages of an outbreak or during seasonal surges, surveillance data is often delayed, incomplete, or biased. Despite these uncertainties, public health officials must still make time-sensitive choices. The role of situational awareness is to bridge this gap, providing the scientific evidence needed to navigate complex epidemiological landscapes. By integrating real-time surveillance with advanced modeling tools, we provide a clearer picture of an epidemic's current state (nowcasting) and its immediate trajectory (forecasting). This work is crucial in narrowing the distance between data collection and action, ensuring that evidence-based insights form the basis for public health decisions.

Research Topics

  • Human Pathogens. The CEPH Lab develops models to monitor the spread of respiratory pathogens, such as influenza, RSV, and COVID-19, providing short-term (1- to 4-week-ahead) forecasts of epidemic burden (e.g., number of hospitalizations) to support public health and clinical preparedness and response planning.
  • Mosquito Population Dynamics. Situational awareness is not limited to human cases. For vector-borne diseases (e.g., West Nile, dengue, Zika), public health actions often start with the vector. We are developing analytical tools that forecast the abundance of Aedes aegypti and other vector species 1 to 4 weeks ahead to inform the deployment of mosquito control strategies.

Approach

We use a set of approaches ranging from mechanistic modeling rooted in epidemiological and biological principles to statistical/machine learning modeling, and semi-mechanistic hybrid approaches based on data type and quality, and the specific public health needs.

Impact

  • CDC Forecasting Hubs: We maintain a long-standing contribution to national forecasting efforts for seasonal and pandemic threats through our participation to CDC-led forecasting initiatives such as FluSight, the COVID-19 forecast hub, and the RSV forecast hub.
  • Mosquito Forecasting Tools: Our forecasting tools have been tested across multiple US jurisdictions to enhance situational awareness of partners such as the Miami-Dade County Mosquito Control Division, Maricopa County Environmental Services, Greater Los Angeles County Vector Control District, and New Orleans Mosquito, Termite and Rodent Control Board.

Funding

  • Our infectious disease forecasting efforts are supported by Epistorm, a center-level grant funded by the CDC.
  • Our mosquito population forecasting efforts are supported by the NSF.

References

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    Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021–22 and 2022–23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations. Nat Commun. 2024;15(1):6289

  • Ventura PC, Kummer AG, Wilke ABB, Chitturi J, Hill MD, Vasquez C, Unlu I, Mutebi JP, Kluh S, Vetrone S, Damian D, Townsend J, Litvinova M, Ajelli M.

    Forecasting the relative abundance of Aedes vector populations to enhance situational awareness for mosquito control operations. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2024;18(11):e0012671.